The COVID-19 pandemic has turned the world upside down, and many countries and communities have been forced to make dramatic changes in lifestyle, plans and expectations. What is being demanded in many of these communities is a dramatic transformational change. Sustainable project management can help provide guidance with this.

What is being asked worldwide is for a major transformational acceptance and change in our behaviours with “short term pain for long term gain”. GPM Global recommends incorporating the Prosci A-D-K-A-R management of change approach [Reference 3] as a sensible framework to start to frame the response:

1 Awareness of the need for change

What is COVID-19?

The virus has been named “SARS-CoV-2” and the infectious disease it causes has been named “coronavirus disease 2019” (abbreviated “COVID-19”).

It results in an outbreak of a respiratory disease caused by a novel (new) coronavirus [Reference 4].

This new virus and disease were unknown before the outbreak began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 [Reference 5].

How confident are we on what we really know?

A key point to remember is that doctors and researchers are scrambling to better understand the basics of COVID-19 (the disease caused by the coronavirus), including how it is transmitted, how it affects the body, and when a vaccine might be available [Reference 6].

What is a Pandemic?

The World Health Organization (WHO) has declared COVID-19 to be a pandemic.

An outbreak is a sudden rise in cases of a disease in a particular place.

An epidemic is a large outbreak.

A pandemic means a global epidemic.

Pandemic is a scary word but it has nothing to do with how serious the illness is. It just means a disease is spreading widely [Reference 7]

As of March 15 from the CDC (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200315-sitrep-55-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=33daa5cb_6):

As of May 7 from an informative website nCoV209.live: https://ncov2019.live/data

How does it spread?

COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning how it spreads, the severity of illness it causes, and to what extent it may spread in the United States [Reference 8].

People can catch COVID-19 from others who have the virus. The disease can spread from person to person through small droplets from the nose or mouth which are spread when a person with COVID-19 coughs or exhales. These droplets land on objects and surfaces around the person. Other people then catch COVID-19 by touching these objects or surfaces, then touching their eyes, nose or mouth. People can also catch COVID-19 if they breathe in droplets from a person with COVID-19 who coughs out or exhales droplets. This is why it is important to stay more than 1 meter (3 feet) away from a person who is sick [Reference 5].

Can CoVID-19 be caught from a person who has no symptoms?

The main way the disease spreads is through respiratory droplets expelled by someone who is coughing. The risk of catching COVID-19 from someone with no symptoms at all is very low. However, many people with COVID-19 experience only mild symptoms. This is particularly true at the early stages of the disease. It is therefore possible to catch COVID-19 from someone who has, for example, just a mild cough and does not feel ill. WHO is assessing ongoing research on the period of transmission of COVID-19 and will continue to share updated findings [Reference 5].

How long is the incubation period for COVID-19?

The “incubation period” means the time between catching the virus and beginning to have symptoms of the disease. Most estimates of the incubation period for COVID-19 range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates will be updated as more data become available [Reference 5].

How long does the virus survive on surfaces?

It is not certain how long the virus that causes COVID-19 survives on surfaces, but it seems to behave like other coronaviruses. Studies suggest that coronaviruses (including preliminary information on the COVID-19 virus) may persist on surfaces for a few hours or up to several days. This may vary under different conditions (e.g. type of surface, temperature or humidity of the environment).

If you think a surface may be infected, clean it with simple disinfectant to kill the virus and protect yourself and others. Clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water. Avoid touching your eyes, mouth, or nose [Reference 5].

How quickly does it spread?

The reality is that for those of us in the Americas, we are significantly behind on testing facilities and data [Reference 9]. We do not know what we do not know. That is why governments are recommending aggressive social distancing and isolation.

To see the current growth rate, please refer to the CDC website: [Reference 10]

As of March 15 from the CDC (https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200315-sitrep-55-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=33daa5cb_6):

Globally 143 countries/territories/ areas (09 new)

153 517 confirmed (10,982 new)

5,735 deaths (343 new)

The trending is noticeable. COVID-19 spreads quickly as shown below:

The World Economic Forum provided the following graphic to show the growth [Reference 11] from January 21 to March 10 2020:

Research is still in its early stages, but some estimates suggest that each person with the new coronavirus could infect between two and four people without effective containment measures. That is enough to sustain and accelerate an outbreak, if nothing is done to reduce it.

2 Desire to participate and support the change

Here is the simple reality that we should all respect [Reference 4]:

• The complete clinical picture with regard to COVID-19 is not fully known.
• Reported illnesses have ranged from very mild (including some with no reported symptoms) to severe, including illness resulting in death.
• While information so far suggests that most COVID-19 illness is mild, a report out of China suggests serious illness occurs in 16% of cases.
• Older people and people of all ages with severe chronic medical conditions — like heart disease, lung disease and diabetes, for example — seem to be at higher risk of developing serious COVID-19 illness

For context, this is the percentage of the elderly population at risk per region [Reference 12]:

As of the time of this writing, we could not find a reference for the demographics of those with chronic health conditions world-wide.

Also, the worldwide medical support systems are already at capacity. This disease has been aggressively spreading:

Coronavirus… appears to transmit effectively in humans – current estimates show that without strong containment measures the average person who catches Covid-19 will pass it on to two others. The virus also appears to have a higher mortality rate than common illnesses such as seasonal flu. The combination of coronavirus’s ability to spread and cause serious illness has prompted many countries, to introduce or plan extensive public health measures aimed at containing and limiting the impact of the epidemic [Reference 13].

For the elderly and chronically sick, and to take the pressure off our medical infrastructure, all of us have the accountability to actively respond to minimize infection and spreading of the disease [Reference 14].

3 Knowledge on how to change

You can reduce your chances of being infected or spreading COVID-19 by taking some simple precautions [Reference 2]:

• Regularly and thoroughly clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water.
  Why? Washing your hands with soap and water or using alcohol-based hand rub kills viruses that may be on your hands.
• Maintain at least 2 meters (6 feet) distance between yourself and anyone who is coughing or sneezing.
  Why? When someone coughs or sneezes they spray small liquid droplets from their nose or mouth which may contain virus. If you are too close, you can breathe in the droplets, including the COVID-19 virus if the person coughing has the disease.
• Avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth.
  Why? Hands touch many surfaces and can pick up viruses. Once contaminated, hands can transfer the virus to your eyes, nose or mouth. From there, the virus can enter your body and can make you sick.
• Make sure you, and the people around you, follow good respiratory hygiene. This means covering your mouth and nose with your bent elbow or tissue when you cough or sneeze. Then dispose of the used tissue immediately.
  Why? Droplets spread virus. By following good respiratory hygiene you protect the people around you from viruses such as cold, flu and COVID-19.
• Stay home if you feel unwell. If you have a fever, cough and difficulty breathing, seek medical attention and call in advance. Follow the directions of your local health authority.
  Why? National and local authorities will have the most up to date information on the situation in your area. Calling in advance will allow your health care provider to quickly direct you to the right health facility. This will also protect you and help prevent spread of viruses and other infections.
• Keep up to date on the latest COVID-19 hotspots (cities or local areas where COVID-19 is spreading widely). If possible, avoid traveling to places  – especially if you are an older person or have diabetes, heart or lung disease.
  Why? You have a higher chance of catching COVID-19 in one of these areas.

Maintain social distancing

This is a big deal and the best thing we can all do.

We strongly recommend that you reference the following Washington Post article to visually see the options and recommendations. As they clearly and factually point out, these recommendations to prevent the exponential growth of the disease are not based on prophecy… this is basic mathematics [Reference 18].

4 Ability to implement required skills and behaviors

Everywhere there are reminders of what to do. A key strategy for adopting these new patters is to remember who we are doing this for: our parents, grandparents, aunts and uncles, the elderly and chronically sick [Reference 15]. Also once again to take the pressure off our medical infrastructure, all of us have the accountability to actively respond to minimize infection and spreading of the disease.

5 Reinforcement to sustain the change

Keep an eye on reliable sources of information for updates and new recommendations. Also, keep an eye on the COVID-19 “hotspots” and avoid those areas and those who visited those areas.

Conclusion

No matter what, during this outbreak and the associated responses by society, government, business, academia, non-profit etc. we all must take into account these transformational changes. We can use the AKDAR approach to guide and lead those that may have challenges. If your stakeholders do not desire or respect the need to participate and support the changes required, it makes no sense to try and educate them on what to do. Everyone needs to successfully accept each of the previous A-D-K-A-R steps before being able to engage in the next step(s). In order to sustainably move forward, we need to successfully incorporate these transformational changes in our communities.

References